It is common to turn to experts in an attempt to predict the future. Whether in the fields of strategy, technology, or economics, we seek to anticipate upcoming developments, to guess the cards that the future holds for us. However, it frequently happens that these experts are mistaken.
The Temptation of Expertise
At first glance, it seems logical to consult specialists to inform our strategic choices. But it must be noted that, all too often, their predictions do not come true. I myself criticized, at one time,Jacques Attali, a close advisor to François Mitterrand, for his predictions about the Internet that have not always proven accurate. I found him too generalist and wondered why he was given so much credit.
Today, I understand this phenomenon better. The world is made up of interactions between different disciplines. An overly narrow specialization does not prevent us from making precise micro-predictions in our field, but it limits our ability to grasp the overall complexity of our world.
The Example of Moore's Law
Let's take Moore's Law, which predicted the doubling of the number of transistors on processors every year. This law has held true for a very long time, but its societal impact remains weak. It is an industrial law, not a societal law. It does not allow for a complex reading of the world or truly useful strategic predictions.
To anticipate effectively, a collective capacity is needed: to understand the impacts of events on other areas of life. This involves adopting a horizontal vision that connects multiple disciplines, rather than a strictly vertical vision focused on a single area.
Horizontal Vision vs. Vertical Vision
The vertical vision consists of mastering a field in depth. The horizontal vision, on the other hand, involves knowing several fields, understanding their interactions, and thus having more perspective. This allows for formulating predictions that may be more accurate, or at least more useful.
Let’s take two examples: artificial intelligence and the autonomous car. Five years ago, as an engineer, I would have claimed that these technologies would not arrive for a very long time. I was then focused on specific technical problems, without seeing the overall converging movements: batch learning, neural networks, the acceleration of computers, the emergence of GPU chips… All these elements have enabled the emergence of AI as we know it today.
In the case of the autonomous car, most engineers, including those at Tesla, highlight the technical complexity of the project. However, Tesla is currently testing its Full Self-Drive system in France., with the aim of commercialising it very soon, including to competitors. In the United States, robotaxis are already beginning to seriously compete with companies like Uber.
Changing the Paradigm
If you had asked an engineer a few years ago, they would have listed all the technical reasons why autonomous cars were impossible in the short term. But a broader vision leads one to ask: what will happen when these problems are overcome? What solutions might emerge?
The expert engineer thinks in terms of problems to solve, whereas someone with a broader general knowledge is interested in the solutions found in the past. The approach is radically different. Engineering is a targeted intellectual force, just like research, which is often very specialised. But the world is becoming increasingly complex, and while specialisation is necessary, it shows its limits in feeding the crystal ball.
The Importance of General Knowledge
A generalist, whether an economist, historian, or historian of science, thanks to their knowledge of history more than of technique, will often be able to make more accurate predictions, or at least more useful ones, more applicable for the implementation of a strategy.
In conclusion, to anticipate the future in a relevant way, it is not enough to rely on technical expertise. One must also know how to connect disciplines, adopt a global vision, and draw inspiration from history to understand how solutions emerge. It is this ability to think horizontally that allows for a better reading of the world in order to act effectively upon it.